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Cell phone subscriptions to hit 5 billion globally

On a planet with around 6.8 billion people, we're likely to see 5 billion cell phone subscriptions this year.

Reaching 4.6 billion at the end of 2009, the number of cell phone subscriptions across the globe will hit 5 billion sometime in 2010, according to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). The explosion in cell phone use has been driven not only by developed countries, but by developing nations hungry for services like mobile banking and health care.

John Gruber points out that just under 1 billion of those phones have internet access.

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Post: Forgive us for thinking we live in the promised land

Back at the office Tuesday after a long holiday break. So lots of questions for me, and a busy day. Good to be back.

It was also the day that Google announced a new mobile phone, the Nexus. Early reviews all say it’s fabulous, as good as the iPhone in many ways. It’s got a much better screen, they say, but correspondingly worse battery life.

Not to be outdone, Apple has been leaking details of their next big thing – a tablet of some sort, to be announced late this month. There’s been lots of speculation about that on the blogs, of course. We can’t figure out what earth-shattering feature might differentiate an Apple tablet from previous, ho-hum tablets. Consensus is that it’s got to be different or Steve Jobs wouldn’t do it. Different and useful. More than “surfing the internet on the can” – which the iPhone and MacBook handle quite well, thank you.

If anybody can, I am sure that Steve Jobs and company will figure out what a tablet is good for – or at least how to wow us enough that we’ll want one, too.

But, wow, that it has come to this. Three years ago, the iPhone turned the cell phone handset business upside down. Now that the competition has caught up, Apple is moving on to something completely different – presumably an entirely new product line. They’ll still be printing money with iPhones.

And we have come to expect that the Steve Jobs won’t do something that’s not revolutionary.

Back to that Google phone. The hardware looks fine, an iPhone knock-off almost as minimalist as Apple’s wares. On the Nexus, the iPhone’s one-button-to-rule-them-all gives way to four buttons and a roller-ball nose.

(See Amit’s post on the back button vs home button design philosophies for the benefits of multiple buttons.)

Based on a brief hands-on with a Droid, I have no doubt that it will handle Gmail and Google apps much better than any phone on earth.

Oh but that home screen – it’s ugly as the Nexus’s name. Google’s marketing shows a wallpaper gray boxes that the reviews say ripple to follow your fingertip on the screen. The reviewers say it’s cool, but in still images make the gray cubes look ckunky.

And yet, in three short years the competition has gone from pushbutton phones (remember Motorola’s Razr) to two iPhone-quality choices – one an Android clone that’s better than the iPhone in significant ways.

And it sounds like Apple plans to respond with something completely different.

Tech products are becoming differentiated as much by aesthetics as features. It’s not about making products that secure a market position (though Apple’s app store policies use some of those old-fashioned tricks, too). It’s about fast teams. Teams that can get things done and drive products to market.

The Google and Apple competition is so interesting because of the firms’ different approaches to innovation. Google’s approach is driven by data, drawn from testing of thousands of users, in hundreds of iterations. Apple’s designs seem to come full-born from the head of Steve Jobs.

Exciting times we live in – and a great time to be shopping for a phone.

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Filed under  //   apps   economy   iphone   mobile   post  

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Anybody want to start a cell phone bank? FrontlineSMS:Credit

Our first module, Savings & Credit, will be available within the next three to five months.  It will allow users to issue credit, hold client savings and record client credit histories.  By linking individual profiles to their respective phone numbers, Savings & Credit will automatically track loan dispersals and adjust outstanding balances as mobile payments are received.  Any mobile payment in excess of an outstanding balance will be attached to the appropriate profile in the form of mobile savings, which an end user will be able to withdraw to their handset via text message.

I've written about FrontlineSMS, the laptop-to-SMS gateway that allows any laptop to become a SMS switchboard http://elstudio.us/frontlinesms-at-netsquared-mobile-n2y4. NGOs in the developing world love it, because it's completely decentralized. All they need is a phone and a laptop to reach lots of people by mobile.

With the recent acquisition of CreditSMS, the Frontline folks are expanding their software to handle microfinance. Expect a first software release in a few months. Anybody want to start a bank?

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Filed under  //   action   microfinance   mobile   sms  

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FrontlineSMS at NetSquared Mobile N2Y4

In addition to the winning project, FrontlineSMS: Medic, the NetSquared Mobile Challenge had several projects that use FrontlineSMS software:FrontlineSMS Alerts and IJ Central were two other finalists.

Several more were centered around SMSmessaging, though it was not clear if FrontlineSMS was the software they intended to use.

So what is this FrontlineSMS stuff, exactly?FrontlineSMS software is a SMS switchboard made for the needs of NGOs.

By leveraging basic tools already available to most NGOs — computers and mobile phones — FrontlineSMS enables instantaneous two-way communication on a large scale. It’s easy to implement, simple to operate, and best of all, the software is free.

Being able to send lots of SMS messages without telecom carrier involvement sounds like a Very Good Thing in particular circumstances. Here’s one endorsement from the FrontlineSMS website:

Based in Africa in a country where broadcast technology is controlled by a dictatorial government, this software has enabled me to communicate with the public at large. I am able to run my project without drawing unnecessary attention to myself — a good thing in this neck of the woods. — Anonymous

The FrontlineSMS project is run by Ken Banks and the kiwanja Foundation, with funding by the Hewlett Foundation, MacArthur and the Open Society Institute.

It’s not clear to me whether FrontlineSMS is open source. The software is free to use — for NGOs at least - but one must fill out a form before download. -I’ve seen mention that the project would go open source sometime this spring, though I could find no indication that the code has been released just yet. The code seems to be written in Java.

Update 2 Jun: The source code is available at the FrontlineSMS project on sourceforge, licensed under the LGPL.

Here’s more about the software:

Many thanks to the funders and team behind FrontlineSMS. The software’s existence means that these NetSquared projects can focus on the task at hand — improving agriculture or medical care — not on taking apart cell phones. Opening up the FrontlineSMS source code should make the software that much more accessible — and let volunteers make it work on different types of phones.

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NetSquared Talk - Phone Plus Web With Open Source by Jason Goecke

What’s a multi-modal application? One that does phone, web, and perhaps Twitter, etc. One example is TwitterVoteReport, a Rails application that collected reports of waiting time at the polls for the 2008 US election. Produced in 3 weeks by Dave Troy. Input came from telephone, Twitter, SMS.

Here’s how Dave did it:

Open-source Software to do Voice

  • Adhearsion Ruby library for easing call handling. Provides a domain language for doing voice in Ruby
  • Asterisk actually talks to the phone system

Other Options

  • Rhomobile Allows Ruby/HTML application to be deployed natively to iPhone, BlackBerry, Windows Mobile, Symbian, Android. For front end.
  • Mozes commercial alternative to phone/SMS/web applications
  • Tropo.com hosts Adhearson and Asterisk in the cloud, so less work for you. Also supports languages beyond Ruby.

Jason Goecke @jsgoecke is a partner at Adhearsion.

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Filed under  //   code   mobile   n2y4   rails   sms   voice  

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